HCP total and LTC & Distribution & Knowledge of Controls are what determines conclusion of bidding.
So first lets examine these concepts individually.
The popular count is 4-3-2-1 for A,K, Q & J
Nevertheless this count is very approximate and incidentally 7531 actually provides a more realistic measure giving the pack a 65 total count rather than 40 of the 4321 count.
Nevertheless all stick to the 4321 which leaves me the task of explaining where its inaccuracies lie.
First Aces are undervalued. 4 1/4 is more realistic than 4. There also seems to be an old wives tale that says a hand of 3 Aces is not a good opening - i beg to differ and value it at 13 and will always open it.
At the other end of the scale Jacks are overvalued: 3/4 a more accurate evaluation, This is especially true of isolated Jacks count them as 1/2 would be wise, however when they combine with other honours like A, K or Q and perhaps a Ten their value could be 1, 1, 1, 3/4 respectively.
Most know that singleton or doubleton K or Q's are to be devalued initially to 2 & 1 for singletons and 2 1/2 & 1 1/2 for doubletons. However if ever in the bidding partner shows that suit then they may immediately revert to their full value - even a previously discounted J.
A humble Ten or 9 has a value in a suit when supporting honour cards - should also be worth a plus value especially in flat distributions or in good 5+ card suits - it can support a finesse capability for example.So what do we do with the count:
First of all revise your evaluation as the bidding progresses, secondly combined with partners apparent values (according to system) it gives part of the reasoning required to divine as to what the partnership may attain on the given cards.
So distribution and controls are the deciding factor - HCP is only a poor man's guide!
What of 1NT contracts? Here there is no doubt that declarer has the edge - its far easier for declarer to determine his best chances than defenders can theirs. Therefore even with a combined 19 HCP value declarer can succeed more often than not - therefore unless distribution indicates otherwise do not disturb a balanced 1NT opening with 7-8 points! One cannot expect to do better at the 2-level in a suit - unless you have the distribution to underwrite it.
With 21, and no better fit to play in a suit with BetaACOL we may find ourselves unfortunately forced into 2NT after partner makes a 2/1 response in a minor. This situation is not ideal and the contract may fail by 1 trick. We have accepted this knowing that structurally we have great benefits from bidding in this way. Partner making a 2/1 is therefore asked to take care and realise that 10HCP is the gold standard rather than 9 and plus values like 5 cards or good intermediates are required with a 9 count and if otherwise the case to devalue the hand to 8 - especially at adverse vulnerability. So 21-23 is the gold standard for a 2NT and 19-21 acceptable for 1NT and probabilites bear this out in flat hands. However, as with 3NT, as long as some control is available a long suit can make all the difference and lower these standard ranges. 3NT requires a balanced combined 24-26. But a long suit can reduce this HCP count requirement dramatically.
NT contracts is all about making your required tricks before opponents can muster a setting trick.
Still figures like 26 HCP for a Major game are quoted and this is approximate for a moderately balanced hand with a fit. Even then a poor guide.
Distribution, the trump fit and controls are the decisive factors - NOT HCP counts.
First we look at the trump suit fit. Without a good suit contracts regularly fail. Losing control of a hand when the trump suit proves inadequate is one major reason for losing a game contract.
5-4 fits or better can rarely prove insufficient so we will concentrate on the more frequent 4-4 and 5-3 fits. BetaACOL will always find these fits unless made difficult by opponent interventions. Nevertheless the more opponents intervene the more distributional the whole hand is likely to be. Distribution favours suit contracts as long as an adequate trump fit can be found and 'mirror' hands are avoided. When intervening opponents demonstrate fits in their own suit the probailities of having a fit yourself is mathematically enhanced.
The right kind of HCP is also often decisive. First it is critical to have top controls in your longer side suits - missing A & K can lead to a loss.
Good fit of an 8 card trump suit is not enough - again without a sufficient HCP count the opponents may reduce your trumps sufficiently to give you much trouble - Holding the Ace of trumps is really useful to reduce the risk of trump attacks.
A lot is said about 4-4 versus 5-3 fits. One is not necessarily better than the other - dispel the often stated idea that 4-4 is superior.
Let's turn our attention to how is LTC determined:-
Examine each of your 4 suits in turn and consider just the 3 highest cards held:
This is calculated by taking from 18 your own LTC count and what your partner's bidding tells you of his LTC count.
Some assumptions can be made:
However LTC is
not enough in itself for slams - indeed it can be very misleading - now
adequate controls are necessary - otherwise one can suffer the ignomy
of losing A & K off the top or even 2 Aces!
There are 2 approaches:
How do HCP, LTC & Controls influence determination of what is possible?
So first lets examine these concepts individually.
HCP count is what every bridge player knows about
Let's look at the detail:The popular count is 4-3-2-1 for A,K, Q & J
Nevertheless this count is very approximate and incidentally 7531 actually provides a more realistic measure giving the pack a 65 total count rather than 40 of the 4321 count.
Nevertheless all stick to the 4321 which leaves me the task of explaining where its inaccuracies lie.
First Aces are undervalued. 4 1/4 is more realistic than 4. There also seems to be an old wives tale that says a hand of 3 Aces is not a good opening - i beg to differ and value it at 13 and will always open it.
At the other end of the scale Jacks are overvalued: 3/4 a more accurate evaluation, This is especially true of isolated Jacks count them as 1/2 would be wise, however when they combine with other honours like A, K or Q and perhaps a Ten their value could be 1, 1, 1, 3/4 respectively.
Most know that singleton or doubleton K or Q's are to be devalued initially to 2 & 1 for singletons and 2 1/2 & 1 1/2 for doubletons. However if ever in the bidding partner shows that suit then they may immediately revert to their full value - even a previously discounted J.
A humble Ten or 9 has a value in a suit when supporting honour cards - should also be worth a plus value especially in flat distributions or in good 5+ card suits - it can support a finesse capability for example.So what do we do with the count:
First of all revise your evaluation as the bidding progresses, secondly combined with partners apparent values (according to system) it gives part of the reasoning required to divine as to what the partnership may attain on the given cards.
Balanced hands & NT contracts
In NT contracts a game is odds on with 25HCP even with 24 probabilities are reasonable but distribution and controls will determine the answer not just HCP. How many times have opponents defeated your 3NT by running a 5 card suit? I know you get away with it sometimes but with good opposition it would be a foolhardy to dream of making it if opponents have 9 cards or even 8 in a suit in which you have little control. Of course with less than 24 3NT can make with a good suit to run.So distribution and controls are the deciding factor - HCP is only a poor man's guide!
What of 1NT contracts? Here there is no doubt that declarer has the edge - its far easier for declarer to determine his best chances than defenders can theirs. Therefore even with a combined 19 HCP value declarer can succeed more often than not - therefore unless distribution indicates otherwise do not disturb a balanced 1NT opening with 7-8 points! One cannot expect to do better at the 2-level in a suit - unless you have the distribution to underwrite it.
With 21, and no better fit to play in a suit with BetaACOL we may find ourselves unfortunately forced into 2NT after partner makes a 2/1 response in a minor. This situation is not ideal and the contract may fail by 1 trick. We have accepted this knowing that structurally we have great benefits from bidding in this way. Partner making a 2/1 is therefore asked to take care and realise that 10HCP is the gold standard rather than 9 and plus values like 5 cards or good intermediates are required with a 9 count and if otherwise the case to devalue the hand to 8 - especially at adverse vulnerability. So 21-23 is the gold standard for a 2NT and 19-21 acceptable for 1NT and probabilites bear this out in flat hands. However, as with 3NT, as long as some control is available a long suit can make all the difference and lower these standard ranges. 3NT requires a balanced combined 24-26. But a long suit can reduce this HCP count requirement dramatically.
NT contracts is all about making your required tricks before opponents can muster a setting trick.
Let's now turn our attention to a suit contracts.
HCP counts are still quoted for suit contracts. Unfortunately they are now very unreliable! The more the hand is distributional the more they are unreliable.Still figures like 26 HCP for a Major game are quoted and this is approximate for a moderately balanced hand with a fit. Even then a poor guide.
Distribution, the trump fit and controls are the decisive factors - NOT HCP counts.
First we look at the trump suit fit. Without a good suit contracts regularly fail. Losing control of a hand when the trump suit proves inadequate is one major reason for losing a game contract.
5-4 fits or better can rarely prove insufficient so we will concentrate on the more frequent 4-4 and 5-3 fits. BetaACOL will always find these fits unless made difficult by opponent interventions. Nevertheless the more opponents intervene the more distributional the whole hand is likely to be. Distribution favours suit contracts as long as an adequate trump fit can be found and 'mirror' hands are avoided. When intervening opponents demonstrate fits in their own suit the probailities of having a fit yourself is mathematically enhanced.
The right kind of HCP is also often decisive. First it is critical to have top controls in your longer side suits - missing A & K can lead to a loss.
Good fit of an 8 card trump suit is not enough - again without a sufficient HCP count the opponents may reduce your trumps sufficiently to give you much trouble - Holding the Ace of trumps is really useful to reduce the risk of trump attacks.
A lot is said about 4-4 versus 5-3 fits. One is not necessarily better than the other - dispel the often stated idea that 4-4 is superior.
- If you need to be able to take a ruff in either of the hands then 4-4 is usually superior
- However if you know you are likely to take a ruff or 2 in the SHORT hand 5-3 is superior
- 5-3 is always likely to be superior if adverse trumps are divided 4-1
- In a slam 5-3 is more likely to be superior as it will provide 5 or even 6 tricks & as it represents a more secure trump suit with a bad trump break versus just 5 likely tricks with 4-4 and slam threatening situation if trumps split badly
- If the trumps are exceptional and include A, K, & Q as well as a Ten or 9 it 4-4 and even 4-3 fits may be very playable
Let's turn our attention to how is LTC determined:-
Examine each of your 4 suits in turn and consider just the 3 highest cards held:
- 3+ cards Jack or less counts 3 LTC
- 3+ cards headed with a Queen should be counted as a 3 LTC count too unless (a) its the trump suit (b) in partners expressed suit then count a 2 LTC
- AKQ.. counts 0 LTC
- AQx.. or KQx....counts 1 LTC
- AJT or AQT count as 1 LTC
- Axx.. or Kxx... counts 2 LTC
- With just 2 small cards, Qx or less count 2 LTC unless its the trump suit or partners known side suit then count 1 LTC
- With just 1 card count 1 LTC unless A or K then count 0 LTC
- With a void count 0 LTC
- Total all four counts
- Finally just one other correction may be made. If their is an unsupported Ace in the above e.g Ax or Axx then deduct 1 from your LTC total if there has been an unsupported Queen ignored in the counts so far
This is calculated by taking from 18 your own LTC count and what your partner's bidding tells you of his LTC count.
Some assumptions can be made:
- An opening in Beta is maximum 7 1/2 LTC
- Initially take a 1-level suit response as a 9 LTC maximum count - often wiser to PASS with worse
- Initially take a 2-level suit response as an 8 LTC maximum count unless making a simple raise of partner's suit when 9 LTC is permitted (slightly pre-emptive).
- Beta does not adhere to reversing values and a simple change of suit is forcing but may not have a better LTC count then that of his opening.
- Responders rebid in the 4th suit is forcing and shows a 7LTC or less
- A Beta 2 Major opening shows exactly 4 or 5 LTC
- A jump rebid by partner shows a maximum of a 6 loser hand
- 5-5 hands are bid with with 7LTC or less
- A jump rebid by opener in a short suit shows a maximum of 6 LTC and a single-suited hand
- A 2C opening followed by a trump request shows 3 1/2 LTC or less
However LTC is
not enough in itself for slams - indeed it can be very misleading - now
adequate controls are necessary - otherwise one can suffer the ignomy
of losing A & K off the top or even 2 Aces!
There are 2 approaches:- Best is cue bidding as it pin-points location and can be initiated even before game level as soon as agreement is found, where it can help too. However once cue-bidding is reaches 4NT, Beta uses TURBO which also operates on the same key cards!
- Then there is the 'Big Bang' 4NT ERKCB.Not used if cue-bidding is commenced.
- In general cue-bidding - locating controls - is always going to help one find good slams and avoid bad ones!
How do HCP, LTC & Controls influence determination of what is possible?